About Me 0010: January 2011

Monday, January 24, 2011

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Last night just before 12 a.m., Twitter began exploding with the news: Facebook had raised $500 million — from Goldman Sachs. Bolstered by a $50-million stake from Russia’s Digital Sky Technologies, a previous FB investor, the Wall Street behemoth had slapped down $450 million to snag the Internet behemoth — now valued at a cool $50 billion. As if on cue, the internet noted that yes, that was cooler than a million dollars.

Notes the NYT’s Dealbook, which broke the scoop: this makes Facebook “worth more than companies like eBay, Yahoo and Time Warner.” It also doubles Mark Zuckerberg’s multi-billion-dollar worth. It also makes Goldman Sachs the gatekeeper to who now gets to invest in the super-hot Facebook, and to the inevitable Facebook IPO. According to Dealbook’s Andrew Ross Sorkin and Evelyn Rusli, Goldman is “planning to create a ’special purpose vehicle’ to allow its high-net worth clients to invest in Facebook, which would allow for max investment while circumventing disclosure rules for companies with 500 or more investors. Clever, that.

So: This is a big deal. Everyone’s already saying that this is putting Google even more on the ropes (seeing as now Facebook is the most visited website in the land) and that Goldman couldn’t be sitting prettier. Here are a few other things it means:

(1) Facebook hiring spree! To paraphrase Antoine Dodson, hide your startups, hide your engineers — Facebook’s a-comin’. Snapping up Hot Potato and Drop.io? Poaching Foursquare’s Nathan Folkman? That’s nothing compared to what Facebook’s got coming. Rumor has it they’re about to close on purchasing the Sun Microsystems campus in Menlo Park from Oracle. That’s probably not just for the scenery. They want to stock up, preferably with talent – and, importantly, companies – that will help it integrate across every platform possible. (I’m guessing one of the new buzzy photo apps will be snapped up.) If you think people are complaining about a developer shortage now, just wait.

(2) China! Mark Zuckerberg recently returned from a trip to China. Innocent pleasure jaunt for the Mandarin-speaking Facebook founder or connection-making relationship-building fact-finding mission to the land of 450 million potential users? China is certainly not an easy place to do business — they just kicked out Skype — but in a globalized, connected world, it’s certainly tough to ignore. Approximately 33% of its massive population is online and as we all know from the rest of the world, that is growing. It’s an insane market to ignore and smart, Mandarin-speaking audacious visionary CEOs probably aren’t going to shy away from trying. Facebook China. It’s gonna happen.

(3) Goldman’s PR Whitewash The Vampire Squid just attached itself to the buzziest, growing-est, Oscar-nominated-est, Person Of The Year-iest tech company around. Who will remember their year of scandal and record bonuses and how everyone hated Goldman Sachs (sample Gawker headline: “Who do you hate more, BP or Goldman Sachs?“). Goldman’s not there for you to like them, people, they’re there to make money — lots of it. But they did have a bruising year and being attached to the shining future-makers at Facebook (never mind the gatekeeper to the Facebook IPO) will certainly help. This lets them offer something shiny to their clients, and bask in that reflected glow. (And guaranteed cashola.) That doesn’t fool the people who know — I like Howard Lindzon’s take:

For Goldman Sachs, this is a no lose situation. If it works, they get the IPO and make some money. That is their job. They got off so easy with the government that this is like Vegas money they probably thought would be the taxpayer’s at some point a year back…The only thing I DO know is that Goldman could give a rat’s ass about the social web and sharing. If they are the top in social web, it’s small potatoes. The war in bonds, currencies and commodities is where the real money is at. This is play money. I hate that Facebook is letting them in.

This is not a coup for Goldman Sachs, this is a shame for the social web.

Okay I lied. I love Howard Lindzon’s take. So, maybe Goldman’s got an uphill PR sell. But — they’ve also got Facebook. Watch the narrative change.

(4) Bigger Players, Bigger Bets When Lindzon points out that this is small potatoes for Goldman, he’s not kidding. But now the bigger fish are sniffing around and what started as mutterings about a bubble somewhere in the late fall now seems to be turning into a gold rush. (Doesn’t Google and their adorable $6 billion offer for Groupon seem so quaint right now? Never mind Twitter’s recent $3.7 billion valuation.) These are billion-dollar figures, and they are actually now starting to sound…eensy. As Ray Kurzweil points out, when technology advances it does so exponentially — so it makes sense that the explosion of tech startups would chicken-egg in conjunction with an explosion of investor dollars — not just the usual (and educated!) suspects, but people on the sidelines reading about Facebook in their Time magazines and deciding that maybe the Internet’s not a fad, after all. (Yes. These people do exist, and many of them have a LOT of money.) High valuations, big deals, young companies getting scooped up — it’s gonna be a dizzying year.

(5) Sympathy For The Google. It’s official: Facebook has gone from underdog challenger of the mighty Google to the top social-tech dog. So watch for everyone to start rooting for Google again. After a wave of backlash (see here and here), the pendulum will swing back around to rooting for the loveable search giant with the cuddly name. Google can take your pity – its market valuation is almost four times Facebook’s at $190 billion, and its current year revenue is about $22 billion to Facebook’s $2 billion. Back to Lindzon: “I think that Google has to buy Twitter and that will start to be a meme soon. It’s a chess game and nuclear war now in the social space.” That sound you hear is the sound of the tech press collectively wetting itself. Ew. But still — everyone likes to root for an exciting matchup. Expect to see some bold moves from Google, soon — if they’re smart. Big “if” (RIP Google Buzz). But isn’t that how underdogs like it?

(6) New Facebook Ad Models. All that said…Facebook has made a big point about how it hasn’t really focused on the silliness of “making money” yet, despite that $2 billion annual rev and nearly 1 trillion display ads per year. I believe them — can they really not do better than targeted ads for Jewish singles in your area? You bet they can: They also make a point about knowing every little bit of information about you for the ultimate in micro-targeting. The online ad industry is evolving and innovating right along with the rest of the web (see AdKeeper) and the key to dominating going forward will be data — using it wisely to convert your users into dollars for advertisers. This is where smart technology will take user data and figure out how to map it on top of shopping data, so that purchasing intent can best be harvested. The stigma about buying online has now pretty much disappeared. With more people using the web, and mobile devices, more often do run more of their lives, there are big bucks at stake. And I’m not even TALKING about how Facebook is looking to horn in on search.

(7) New Facebook Business Models. They have all these users. All this data. They’d be crazy just to stick with what they’ve got. Hell, now they’ve got fun money just to fling up into the air and see where it goes. They’re poaching the best and brightest who all gush on and on about how “exciting” and “creative” and “free” it is. Clearly these people are getting to work on some fun stuff. So far Facebook has shown itself as adept at replicating the innovations of its competitors (see: Foursquare –> Facebook Places). But with all the resources at their disposal and innovations happening across every industry on every platform, they’d be nuts not to at least test the waters. Hey, that car’s not gonna drive itself. Oh, wait.

(8) People Generally Freaking Out This has already started to happen. First Groupon (“What? But they AREN’T EVEN A TECH COMPANY!!!”) and now Super-Sized Facebook. Entrepreneurs and founders and people with fledgling ideas that are half-built that they’ve been slaving over at night are obsessing about all day are suddenly freaking out that they have to get to market NOW before the bubble pops and the money dries up. Chill out, dude. (And, ladies!) If you’re making something of value, it’ll take. Just focus on it, be smart, and don’t let Twitter and TechCrunch freak you out. (Here, take some advice from these people.) Just a moment of Zen amidst the craziness. All right, now – onward! It’s 2011 and YOU’D BETTER NOT SCREW THIS UP. Haa, just kidding. Mostly.

Well: It should be interesting. Happy New Year, everybody!

Related:

Goldman’s Facebook Coup [Felix Salmon - Reuters]

The Social Web Index … All-Time Highs in Pressure and Price and Shame on Facebook [Howard Lindzon]

Was Goldman wise to invest $500m in Facebook at a $50B valuation? [Quora]

Goldman Sachs Just Bought The Facebook IPO [Business Insider]

Follow Rachel Sklar on Twitter here.

Illustration of Mark Zuckerberg as Avatar-ized Time Person of the Year from Sandbox World (via Boing Boing) (hat tip: Bnter).

Through most of my adult life I’ve always believed that even though the country might be deeply divided about the direction of the county, there was at least one major party or movement sufficiently sane and principled to give us hope things could, with luck and effort, eventually work out. But not now.

Today, a Tea-GOPer group with the oxymoronic name, Republican Study Group, released a list of proposed spending cuts [complete list from Wendydavis]. which can be summed up in a few words: virtually every cut they want to make will make life meaner for everyone but the rich. We’ll have less public health research and care, more pollution, fewer public services, less science, less public art, more hardship for more people and less assistance for the poor, and on and on.

If we were a destitute nation, flat broke with no future for growth, one might accept some of this as regrettable but unavoidable, but we’re none of those. There is literally no rational barrier to spending the money on the things our society needs. The Tea-GOPers, with framing assistance from the President and very foolish Democrats, just want us to behave as though we’re an impoverished nation and so they’re willing to impoverish the nation’s spirit and cripple its governance to prove it. It’s as though a hostile enemy had put the nation under economic siege, and we’d decided to let them win.

If only there were at least one opposition party to call out these medieval nihilists and crackpots. But alas, we’re stuck with a party that foolishly allows itself to be led by an Administration with no respect for its roots, little vision and even less courage. Every day, Team Obama makes up a fresh excuse for not confronting the nation’s needs, or even describing them honestly, while pretending they’ve done everything they can think of that won’t upset the 60th Senator. Why did these people even want the White House?

And we’re told the Administration’s primary message is to endorse the enemy’s view of America’s economic helplessness and the necessity of making things worse for the most vulnerable in our society.

Yet today, the latest polls tell us Mr. Obama’s and Democrats’ approval ratings are up. Is it because despite his other priorities, Congress managed to adopt several clearly liberal policies in December? Or is it that voters are simply more optimistic about the economy even though they still have a dim view of the direction of the country?

I predict this momentary spurt will collapse. The country faces a related set of crises:

– 15 million unemployed, with millions jobless for more than six months; there is no apparent, dependable engine of growth to reverse that soon;

– a huge collapse in aggregate demand coupled with a deleveraging process after homeowners lost trillions when the housing bubble burst; with depressed demand, businesses have little reason to expand;

– a resulting severe mortgage crisis made even more cruel by pervasive fraud on the part of banks and their servicing entities, with negative implications for the housing market, underwater owners, bank insolvency and the integrity of the foreclosure/judicial system;

– massive budget crisis in many states, forcing layoffs and declining public services, including cuts to safety-net programs whose needs mushroomed because of the recession;

– an out of control financial/banking sector that continues to loot consumers and run an unregulated casino with nearly free money from the Feds;

– a mind-numbing denial about the dangers of global climate change, as its consequences literally begin to flood vulnerable parts of the planet;

– debilitating wars that continue to drain the US while destroying or destabilizing countries we presume to be helping;

. . . and on and on.

Now match that list of actual problems against anything we’ve heard from the Obama Administration or the new Tea-GOPer Congress about their priorities. There’s almost zero overlap. There’s no jobs program, no mortgage solution, no state budget rescue, no reining in the financial sector before the MOTU tank the economy again, no end to wars, no restoration of the rule of law. In short, we see nothing even remotely helpful coming from Washington.

Instead, the DC/Third Way’s top agenda is to cut Social Security, as though the problem with America is that our elderly, having seen their home or market savings wiped out, have too much economic security. Then they want to cut federal spending at the same time state and local governments are contracting and consumers are deleveraging, which can only reduce the country’s standard of living further. And to finish the demolition, they want to cripple government’s ability to address any of the actual problems.

Shouldn’t we be protesting in the streets? These people are trashing the place, but there are no grownups in charge, and as far as I can tell, none waiting in the wings, not even a government in exile, if the whole structure crashes again. We look like early Tunisia, only less aware.

John Chandley

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Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Making Money With a Website

The Middle East’s largest online auction and buying site has decided auctions are so last decade.

From the beginning of 2011 sellers won’t get the option to sell their products in an auction. It’s fixed price, or none at all.

The decision comes as a shock to many as Souq.com, which opened its doors to the public in 2005 and has since launched in 5 countries in the region, has always been portrayed as the eBay of the Middle East. At least in terms of online auctions, not anymore.

“We (and most of our sellers) want to offer the best online shopping experience to users in the region, and this is one step along the way to support this goal.” said CEO and Founder of Souq.com Ronaldo Mouchawar in an email about the recent shift.

This change, as most in life, will have its supporters and detractors. The good thing is, it looks like a only slim minority might end up annoyed.

To illustrate the above, lets say you’re a painter and you work from home during your spare time. I’m one of those who believe art has no price, but since it’s good to have paint to create priceless masterpieces, putting the occasional price tag on your work isn’t entirely evil. The only problem with that is how do you put a price tag on art in the first place? Van Gough considered giving money for art is as important as being an artist yourself. That’s where auctions come in strong.

By putting up a painting to sell through an auction, the seller allows the highest bidder to give her as much it takes to win the auction, or otherwise ask to ‘Buy Now’ according to a price the seller sets. Will this shift be good for those who realistically don’t know how much their work is worth? I would say no.

On the flip-side regional retail stores tend to invest large amounts of money to put their products online on their own, and usually fail miserably. Many factors come into play, but the most obvious are a large user base and an easy to use website to buy from.

This encouraged Souq.com to build a platform for merchants and retail stores to offer their products on Souq through fixed prices (almost all the time), and through Souq Stores which are customizable online outlets for retailers such as UAE’s

She claims she’s known since 2006 that this would be her last term. Could be, but (a) she’s changed her mind about the Senate before and (b) getting blown out by Rick Perry in the gubernatorial primary last year surely must have brought home to her what a 2012 primary would look like. Tea partiers want this seat, and one way or another, they’re probably going to get it. Why put herself through another brutal, expensive primary that’s likely to end in embarrassment?

I wonder what Olympia Snowe’s thinking right now.

Hutchison, first elected to the Senate in 1993, said the swearing-in of the new Congress, among other things, made her feel it was the right moment to announce her resignation.

She predicted that her departure from the political scene would set off a rampage of candidates looking to replace her.

“It’s just time for people to start making their plans,” Hutchison said. “Now it’s time for a new person.”

Likely Republican contenders to succeed her include Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, state Sen. Florence Shapiro of Plano, Railroad Commissioners Elizabeth Ames Jones and Michael Williams, Weatherford car dealer Roger Williams, and Ted Cruz, a former Texas solicitor general and candidate for state attorney general.

Sound off, Texans: Who’s the favorite? Heard a lot of excitement for Williams on Twitter today after the news about KBH first broke. Via his campaign website, here he is on big government and health-care reform.

Update: A source familiar with Texas politics handicaps the race thusly:

The most amazing thing here is the level of talent that will be competing for this seat. There are several GOP candidates who are viable and would be good to great senators if elected.

Inside track – Lt Gov David Dewhurst. He’s a billionaire, so he can fund the race and defend the seat, and he holds what is actually the most powerful post in Texas government, so he has been collecting chits on this run for years.

Track 2 – AG Greg Abbott. The grassroots and Tea Parties adore Abbott. He has championed the anti-ObamaCare lawsuit, and is one of Texas’ absolute best stump speakers. He has also led a crackdown on deadbeat dads, which has earned him a lot of support in the middle.

Track 3 – Roger Williams. Former Texas Secretary of State, and he chaired the state Victory effort in 2008, raising $5 million in a couple of months. He’s wealthy, sharp, and may have the most experienced campaign talent on his side.

Track 4 – Michael Williams, Elizabeth Ames Jones, state Sen. Dan Patrick, former solicitor general Ted Cruz. Williams and Jones are both on the Railroad Commission, Williams has major grassroots support and is mindblowingly good at stump speeches, Patrick has a major Houston radio show and is very media savvy and well liked, Jones has money and some major backers of her own. Cruz is a bit of a dark horse (as is Patrick) but the grassroots love him and he’s also great on the stump. None of these candidates are bad candidates. All have held or currently hold major offices.

It will be a fascinating race to watch. There may be 20-25 candidates total on the GOP side, compared to 2 or 3 on the D side, with former Houston mayor Bill White leading that field. He was a terrible candidate for governor, no reason to think he’ll be any better running for Senate. The GOP keeps the seat, and chances are, gets a more conservative senator.

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Friday, January 14, 2011

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Being Right or Making Money

I recently watched the movie Exit Through the Gift Shop from well-known artist Banksy. I got a kick out of this film for multiple reasons having liked Banksy's artwork for years now.

What most amused me though is how well it goes about making you question what celebrity is and how much you can achieve by becoming famous. The key point for me is questioning whether you really need to be creative and innovative above and beyond being famous.

Then Mike Butcher over at Techcrunch went and posted something this morning about startup teams trumping celebrity tech entrepreneurs. In summary, he too is making the point that execution far outweighs celebrity.

Basically, what I'm getting at, is all the parallels you're starting to see between the startup world and the movie business. I am definitely not an expert on the movie business and can only imagine what it's truly like from afar. Yet, we've all seen enough of it to realize a bit how things work in Hollywood. You basically have a couple large companies or studios as they're usually called. There you have management at the top who are the power-brokers in the industry. They back films which are used as vehicles to market actors who either succeed or not. If they do succeed, they are cast in further films and a ton of marketing is thrown at these films, regardless of whether these actors have talent or not.

Ultimately, the goal is to make as much money as possible and if you're the one making all this money, keep other people out so you can continue to make as much money as possible. Sure, there are some stand-out actors, managers and studios who go against the grain but basically it's an industry optimized to make money. Simplified by me immensely but I believe you understand what I am saying.

Now let's switch over to the startup world. It's no longer Hollywood and we're now a bit north in Silicon Valley. You have a couple firms who call all the shots and are known as Tier 1 VC's (with some major players like Google, Apple, and Facebook thrown in for good measure).

These VC's fund firms instead of films run by entrepreneurs instead of actors. Some of these entrepreneurs are successful and some are not. Those who are get funded further by these Tier 1 firms. Lots of companies are started and sold since these power brokers in the Valley sit on each other's boards and pass deals back and forth. The power brokers continue to make money and those entrepreneurs who don't lead to successful exits get weeded out (where's the reality TV version of "out to pasture" for entrepreneurs?)

Ultimately, as in the movie business, you make as much money as possible and keep out the riff-raff who would keep you from making tons of money as long as possible.

Now don't get me wrong. I am in no way arguing about whether the movie or startup business is right or wrong or skewed in someone's favor or not. I'm also probably simplifying it too much as well. But the point I am making is that we are in a world where it's about making money. Sure, you can get your touchy-feely on and say you're changing the world but ultimately you wouldn't "work" if it wasn't about making some money.

Hence, my advice to any entrepreneur is to take advantage of whatever you have if you ultimately want to be successful. If you are naturally good looking, get your face out there. Be on TV and in the press. If it helps you make money, go for it.

At the same time, if media attention doesn't help you make more money, don't focus on it. Get your pretty head down to business and execute like hell to innovate, optimize and sell your product. Or have the best of both worlds. Be a CEO focussed on getting your brand or product out there and have a number two (great blog post by Ben Horowitz) who takes care of business. What you need to focus on is making money and being the scrappy entrepreneur that you are, you'll optimize wherever you can to achieve your goal.

In the end it's never about who was most popular that determines success. Just think back to all those football players and cheerleaders in high school. (I've seen some of them from my high school....thank you Facebook.....and had a good laugh!) So often there are people you never hear about making tons of cash since they don't need to focus on media.

On the other hand, if Twitter/Foursquare/Zynga/Groupon hadn't received so much media attention, you think they'd be where they are now? I highly doubt it and I guarantee you that they had a clear strategy in place to use media (and position their founders) from the start. Hence, don't waste time focussed on the wrong things. If you're a celebrity entrepreneur who's counting his millions hats off to you. If you've become a media darling and are broke, well tough luck kid. Try something new.

By the way, here's what Exit Through the Gift Shop is about cut and pasted from Wikipedia. Think what you will about whether it's a real story or not but reast assured the dollars earned by "Mr Brainwash" were real!!

Exit Through the Gift Shop: A Banksy Film is a Gonzo Documentary which tells the story of Thierry Guetta, a French immigrant in Los Angeles, and his obsession with street art. It is presented as a documentary, but reviewers have questioned its factuality. The film charts Guetta's constant documenting of his every moment on film, to his chance contact with his cousin, the artist Invader, and his documenting of a host of street artists with focus on Shepard Fairey, and also Banksy though the latter's face is never shown, and his voice is distorted to preserve his anonymity

By Dian L. Chu, EconForecast

China has been ranked as the top growing country among the G20 since 2001 and is expected to retain that title for at least another five years (See Growth Chart). However, the news coming out of China for the past three months has not been good. It is looking more and more that it is not a question of if China is a bubble and going to burst, but when.

The country has major infrastructure issues, troubling population dynamics, poorly aligned employment outcomes, inflation problems, a real estate bubble, an opaque and potentially insolvent banking system (had mark-to-market accounting been applied), geo-political problems with North Korea and Taiwan, and an underperforming stock market in 2010 (see stock comparison chart).

Smart Money Rushing Out

While the hot money is flooding into China, the smart local money is doing everything they can to get their money outside of China, which partly explains why Shanghai SE Composite has underperformed other markets for the past year or so (see Comparison Chart).

The many issues of China could conspire to become the biggest train wreck waiting to happen, and potentially dwarf any little budget problems in Europe by a factor of ten.

Big Trouble In Big China

China has a population related societal structural problem. The nation has tried to utilize the vast manpower to its advantage over the last two decades building a powerhouse manufacturing economy through the availability of low cost workers, which supplied the world with lower cost goods.

Nevertheless, the harsh reality is that the nation's infrastructure, quality jobs, food, and overall resources are too scarce to support such mass population, while achieving the government`s goal of a smooth transition to a developed middle class to sustain an internal demand model going forward.

If you think you have riots in Greece over the pension retirement age being raised is bad, just wait till riots breaking out in Beijing and other cities over the fact that a 90 cent bowl of noodle soup now costs four dollars due to food shortages, and a runaway inflation problem.

Loose Lending = Non-performing Projects

This is only reinforced by some of the news events taking place over the last three months. Let`s start with the raising of banks reserve requirements by the central bank, which is the sixth such increase in 2010.

These measures are meant to curb the excess lending which has fueled much of the overbuilding and real estate speculation occurred over the past two years as China`s central bank initially wanted to avert a recession by artificially creating demand for workers and construction projects to replace lagging demand from the developed economies.

The problem is that too much lending has occurred, and bad lending at that. Because of the cheap available credit, now you have cement companies and manufacturing firms getting bank loans to invest in endeavors such as real estate, which is outside of their core expertise and competency.

Real Estate Misery Loves Company – China & Spain

The result is a bunch of excess inventory and poorly thought-out construction projects which have no means of recouping the initial investment needed to repay the bank loans.

This practice is similar to Spain`s situation now where they have entire uninhabited building complexes that have yet to be marked to market, and will probably ultimately be demolished. But at least in Spain, even though it was a construction boom, it was engineered by developers in Spain, and not by some manufacturing outfits like those in China.

So, multiply the bad business project factor by ten and you get an understanding of the magnitude of bad loans on the books of Chinese banks. The problem is being further exacerbated by the practice similar to Spain`s of banks making additional loans to the businesses just so that they can then turnaround and pay back the interest owed on the original loans.

The only way this would work out is if these projects magically develop revenue streams. Unfortunately, in the case of Spain, a 20% unemployment rate, coupled with a still overvalued housing market in which prices still need to come down significantly, would suggest that by the time the Spanish economy recovers enough to support the excess inventory, the abandoned projects are run down and uninhabitable.

A similar scenario could play out in China as well.

True Smart Money Wary of the Write-off Domino

Furthermore, China`s practice of overbuilding at the height of real estate valuations makes even haircuts on loan write-offs an untenable practice for banks, and by further throwing good money after bad, the ultimate mark- to-market effect could be catastrophic for Chinese Banks.

This is the main reason all the major Chinese banks have gone to the market in 2010 to raise more capital before investors wise up to the underlying deficits these banks face, as these bad loans eventually would need to be written off the books.

Victor Shih, a Northwestern University professor estimates that Chinese local governments borrowed some 11.4 trillion renminbi at the end of 2009, and that local government financing loans to be roughly one-third of China's 2009 GDP. The most likely scenario over the next few years is that there would be increases of non-performing loans ratio from local governments. This would require a large scale of recapitalization of the Chinese banking system, which would eat up a large share of China's foreign exchange reserves and possibly slow down growth.

Although Beijing is quite capable of a few bailouts and surviving a widespread banking crisis, it most definitely will not bode well for the financial markets. So, insiders are removing capital from direct exposure to the inevitable re-pricing that will happen throughout Chinese markets from real estate to the stock market, and can be seen at this early stage by the underperformance of the Chinese stock market compared to other global markets. Remember, foreigners cannot invest directly in these markets, so these capital outflows are truly the smart money.

Logistic Gridlock Crimping the Middle Class

Next let`s look at the recent news regarding a severe cutback in automobile registrations in Beijing to 240,000 in 2011 from 700,000 registered in 2010 by the municipal government. Other large cities in China are bound to follow. This is most likely related to the reported 9-day traffic jam on the Beijing-Tibet expressway in August, and other extended traffic jams throughout China in 2010.

China is trying to build infrastructure projects after the fact; whereas with proper central planning these should have been established far ahead of the massive transition from a rural, agricultural based populous to that of a modern, large city based business and manufacturing concentration.

Simply put, it is impossible for all the Chinese citizens who want and can afford automobiles to be able to own and utilize this form of transport without a total breakdown in the transportation system. We are seeing the early stages of complete and counterproductive gridlock in the transportation system of China, and it is only going to get worse over the next decade.

No Jobs for College Grads

For all the talk about how China graduates more engineers each year, and other college educated young people who have strong backgrounds in the hard sciences than most developed nations combined, this is actually another sign of problems to come over the next decade in China.

China`s wealth and emergence into the second largest business economy hasn`t been built around the need for these types of mind and skill set. So literally you have a large mismatch between the types of available jobs in China, that are supported by the heavy manufacturing and construction intensive focus of the past twenty years, to that of the recently educated pool of graduates who have grown in sizable numbers over the past five years.

The Mind Is A Terrible Thing To Waste

This results in a large human asset class that China is currently wasting, as most of the newly educated workforce is working in jobs which require little or no advanced education at the university level. So you have highly educated university graduates in areas like engineering and accounting working low level service and sales jobs that pay less than many manufacturing jobs.

In short, there are too many highly educated Chinese citizens graduating each year for the number of jobs available needing their skill set because China`s economic model isn`t built around these type of jobs. This type of misaligned employment outcomes never ends well; it usually manifests itself in increased civil and social unrest.

8% Inflation in 2011

The next major challenge for China is a skyrocketing inflation, which at its root is the fact that there are too many people chasing too few resources. This fundamental flaw in population dynamics underpins many of the problems that China faces going forward.

Recent CPI data for November illustrates the inflation problem in China with a reading of 5.1% from a year ago comparison, this is up from a 4.4% reading for the previous month. Couple this with the latest 4% hike in fuel prices in China because of rising oil prices, you could expect future CPI and PPI reports to reflect even higher rates of inflation.

For now, most of the year over year spike has revolved around higher food prices as energy has mainly been flat for 2010 thanks mostly to government subsidies. Now that energy prices have entered the picture, China will start to experience even more inflation pressures in 2011.

Furthermore, with the undervalued yuan pegged to the dollar, it is only getting worse for China in 2011 due to Fed's QE2 pressures on the dollar. The real inflation rate for Chinese citizens for 2011 will probably approach 8% next year.

An Asian Contagion by China?

This escalating inflation concern is further compounded by Beijing's lack of decisive action to combat the problem by delaying a much needed currency appreciation, and hiking interest rates in a timely fashion. There is no getting around the fact that these two things need to occur as soon as possible.

By the time the Chinese government is forced to implement these tightening tools, the damage to the economy is most likely already done. The longer China delays the inevitable serious tightening measures, the harder the economic crash that will occur in the aftermath of these policy changes. And it is unlikely to end well. The resultant impact will probably take the rest of the Asian economies down with it – an Asian Contagion scenario.

History Repeats Itself

Eventually central planners and finance ministers around the world might start to understand that policies which lead to bubbles being formed in the first place are counterproductive in the long run. But until that lesson is learned, it seems like we are doomed to repeat the same mistakes over and over again.

Right now, there are more and more signs coming out of China that all is not well with its economy, and the likelihood of a more severe downturn in the future is a distinct possibility, unless its policy makers take decisive and prudent actions to minimize the damage of a hard landing.

Dian L. Chu, | Mobile Reader, Website | | Facebook | Twitter

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Thursday, January 13, 2011

Making Money Easy

WALL STREET: MONEY NEVER SLEEPS

Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps is a movie with big ideas on its mind, but it only knows how to communicate them in crayon. It’s a seriously stupid film that seems to have gotten a half-hearted pass from critics simply for being timely. I hesitate to even call it a sequel to Wall Street, since it’s relevant to that film in theme only; Gordon Gekko barely factors into the narrative, and on the rare occasion that he does, it only further exposes how dramatically inert the whole thing is. The rest of the runtime is spent on characters blathering buzzwords and financial jargon in an attempt to push an agenda so thoughtlessly constructed that it necessitates what’s essentially a big budget PowerPoint presentation in order to drive it home. Oh and hey look at that, here’s Susan Sarandon in a five minute role as Shia LaBeouf’s real estate agent mom. See, now we’re dealing with the housing market! God we’re topical!

Available on Blu-ray? Yes.

Notable Extras: DVD – A commentary by director Oliver Stone, and A Conversation with Oliver Stone and the Cast of Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps. Blu-ray – Includes everything on the DVD, as well as a 5-part look at the real Wall Street (“Unfinished Business: Oliver Stone & Cast Revisit Wall Street”, “Gordon Gekko is Back: Character Study”, “Lifestyles of the Wall Street Rich and Infamous”, “A Tour of the streets of Wall Street”, “Trends, Schemes, and Economic Collapse – How did it Happen?”), deleted and extended scenes, an In Character With feature, and a digital copy of the film.

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